2024 MLB post-hype assessment: assessing previous elite prospects….

Young players’ growth and development can be erratic, unclear, and occasionally quite abrupt. We conducted a post-hype check-in on a number of young players at the end of May of the previous year. Bobby Witt Jr. was one player we looked at.

In 2022, the second-year shortstop had a strong rookie campaign, but it was more show than tell: he had 20 home runs and 30 stolen bases, but his defense was weak and his on-base percentage was below.300. He hit.228/.266/.430 by the end of May of previous season, showing no signs of improvement. Then it all made sense. Witt scored fifteen home runs and hit.325 in July and August. Finished with 30 home runs, 49 stolen bases, and 4.4 WAR, he hit.276/.319/.495 for the season. Thus far, he has improved even more.

Young athletes’ growth and development are erratic, uncertain, and might occur suddenly at times. We checked up with a number of young players at the end of May the previous year, after the excitement. Bobby Witt Jr. was one of the players we studied.

While the second-year shortstop’s 2022 rookie season was solid, it was more show than substance due to his power (20 home runs) and speed (30 stolen bases), as well as his sub-.300 on-base percentage and subpar fielding. He had not improved at the end of May in the previous season, hitting.228/.266/.430. At that point, everything made sense. Witt hit.325 with 15 home runs in July and August. With 30 home runs, 49 stolen bases, and 4.4 WAR, he concluded the season at.276/.319/.495. So far, he’s even better.